The last thing I want to do is tempt fate. However, a quick look at the table would suggest that Palace will be playing Premier League football next season. They are not home and hosed, and that mythical 40 points is still a little way off, but after it looked like they were going to be sucked right back into the relegation dog fight, recent results have seen them, if not pull clear, then at least put themselves in a position from where they are able to do so. So, that gives Hodgson an intriguing dilemma. Does he spend the remainder of the season carrying on doing the things that have all but guaranteed their safety? Or does he more or less rip that up and start to experiment with a more free-flowing, easier-on-the-eye brand of football?
A Unique Opportunity
There is no getting away from the fact that Hodgson has done a remarkable job since taking over at Selhurst Park. He rescued the club from an almost certain drop into the championship, and it looks like they are safe once more. What he and everyone else at the club want, though, is to be looking up the table next season at the European positions, as opposed to casting nervy glances down at the trapdoor. It would also be good for everyone involved if they were playing an attacking style of football, when conceding a goal does not almost certainly wipe out the chances of acquiring all three points. This idea is not impossible, but it is something that needs two things. First of all, it requires a change of personnel or, at least, the addition of players who will be able to do that—players who will relieve Zaha of the burden of basically being the one creative spark on the team. That is something that will need to be addressed in the summer. The second requirement does not, however, and the club and management are in the unusual position of being able to experiment in real league games; this is something that is usually only viable in pre-season friendlies, which, though useful, are more often than not exercises in getting players up to speed fitness and (in particular) match fitness-wise.
What Needs to Change?
With the players available, Hodgson has had one hand tied behind his back with the type of football he has been able to play, especially when he has needed the team to pick up enough points to secure survival. That said, it does not take a genius to see where Palace’s problems have been in recent months. Only one other side has scored fewer goals this season. To balance that up, only two sides outside the top three have conceded fewer. The trick, of course, is to improve the former without completely throwing away the ability to keep it tight at the back.
Expected goals, also known as Xg, are something that we are hearing more and more about. The idea is not without its flaws, but what it is is a very good indicator—over an extended period of time—of where a team is. It can show whether a side is punching above its weight (perhaps riding its luck) or, on the other hand, whether the problem is just one of not being clinical enough in the final third.
Looking at the expected goals for Palace’s season tells its own story—one that will be of no surprise to those who have watched the side this season. Once again, there is only one side (Newcastle) that has created fewer goal-scoring chances. To begin to change that, Hodgson could set out his team for the remaining games with a different mindset, a different formation, and a different (to a certain extent) team. If the fans know what is happening, he will be given time and patience—two things that are normally non-existent in top-level football management today. It will give the current players a chance to get used to the new system in real game situations and also allow Hodgson to fully understand exactly what players and type of players he needs and who he can replace in the summer window.
